May 23 2012

Stein & Barr Enter Final Stretch of Primary Campaign

Source: Green Party Watch

After winning nine of ten Delegates in Delaware and Maryland on May 12, Jill Stein picked up 30.5 Delegates last weekend out of 42 available, from six states. The other 11.5 went to Roseanne Barr.

Our unofficial Delegate count now shows Jill Stein has secured 138 Delegates out of the 185 that have been determined, 74.5%. Roseanne Barr has been increasing her numbers, and currently has secured 32 Delegates, for 17%. Kent Mesplay has 6.5 Delegates, Harley Mikkelson 1.5 Delegates, and there are 7 uncommitted Delegates.

The breakdown from the weekend of May 19:

  • Hawaii – 4 delegates for Stein
  • Minnesota – 4 delegates for Stein, 3 delegates for Barr
  • Mississippi – 4 delegates for Stein
  • New York – 14 delegates for Stein, 2 delegates for Barr
  • Pennsylvania – 4 delegates for Stein, 3 delegates for Barr
  • Tennessee – 2.5 delegates for Stein, 1.5 delegates for Barr
  • Given that Jill Stein has a 100 delegate lead in a contest that has a maximum of 400 delegates, is she now the presumptive nominee? That would depend on who you ask. On the one hand, there are a number of states and territories that have been assigned delegates that have no active Green Party chapters, and will likely not be sending Delegates. I would include in this list Alaska, Idaho, South Dakota, Wyoming, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and the US Virgin Islands – for 24 total. There are another group of states that are wild cards – we know there are Greens there, but we can’t find any indication of when and how they will select their delegates. Those states hold an additional 48 Delegates that may not be allocated. If those states and territories fail to allocate Delegates, then the total number may drop to as low as 330. However, there could be surprises, there is word out that a Green Party will be meeting in North Dakota soon, a state that has been difficult to organize in the past.

    There are four tests coming up for both Jill Stein and Roseanne Barr.

    First, this coming weekend we may hear delegate results from Iowa (4), Florida (8), North Carolina (4), and Washington (4).

    Second, Michigan’s state convention is June 2-3. Michigan has 16 Delegates, one of the five largest delegations. Also meeting that weekend is Georgia (4 delegates).

    Third is California, which not only has the largest delegation size (65), but has a state run primary on June 5. Roseanne Barr has been on CNN asking voters to change registration to vote for her, and may very well give Jill Stein a run for her money. 65 Delegates could be a “game changer”.

    Fourth, the great state of Texas holds their state convention on June 9-10, possibly the last state to determine their delegates before the July 15th Presidential Convention. Texas has 12 Delegates.

    So on one hand, based on a realist perspective on the total possible number of delegates, Jill Stein may only need to secure a few dozen more to get the nomination. But on the other hand, there are 117 Delegates that will be determined over the next four weeks, and Greens can be an unpredictable lot.

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