May 07 2012

Article Asks, Are “Third Parties Goode News for Obama?”

Source: Independent Political Report

This article tackles the question of how well Johnson and Goode might do in their respective home-states and in various battleground states in general.

So what’s an uncompromising Constitutional Conservative – like, say, Jamie Johnson of Iowa’s Republican State Central Committee, who vows “My conscience will not let me help” Mitt Romney — supposed to do?

Well, by coincidence, today is the start of the Libertarian National Convention, held appropriately enough in the do what thou wilt capital of America, Vegas, baby. The frontrunner for the nomination is the Libertarian’s first bona fide elected official to seek the nomination since, well, Ron Paul in 1988. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson ran briefly for the Republican nomination this year on the Peter Tosh platform; elected officials only seem to get vocal about drug legalization once they LEAVE office. Johnson could have some appeal to Occupy types, but my pet theory is that Libertarians take two to three votes from Republicans for every one they take from Democrats.

Perhaps more of a threat to Mitt Romney is former congressman Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party. They’re more of a strict social conservative outfit than the Libertarians, but that’s the ticket Paul endorsed late in the 2008 cycle. Goode’s got zero appeal to lefties but could draw decisive support in one state: his own Virginia.

The poll does not mention that Johnson polls best amongst independents and almost just as high amongst Democrats as Republicans. It does mention that Goode polls particularly well amongst the “Very conservative” demographic.

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